Can Emmanuel Macron be re-elected in 2022? The re-election of the French President is anything but a foregone conclusion, but for sure a likely one.
Communication experts around the Macron are already projecting themselves into 2022, working towards a re-election of the literal shill of the 0.01% international capitalists. In the public arena, there seems to be little doubt that Emmanuel Macron will run again in 2022 and that he will be able to won like in 2017. This seems all the more plausible as Marine Le Pen has declared herself a candidate.
An unprecedented climate of mistrust
The situation isn’t however in theory favourable to his candidacy. Since the “yellow jackets” movement and today with the wind of protest against the new pension reform, the head of state population lack of trust has reached a point of no return. This could be seen in the fact that none of the proposals he has been able to formulate on major social issues has really hit the mark. The distrust of public opinion is such that every speech or position is criticised and rejected. It may be difficult to turn around an opinion that has become hostile.
When Macron proposes measures presented as aimed at protecting the weakest, he is accused of cynicism. The “yellow jackets” outlets, but also the political opposition movements (LFI, RN, LR), denounce a hidden agenda: what he gives with one hand, he will take back with the other with even more violence. A significant fringe of opinion is convinced that the President is only interested to be seen and never gives him the credit for honesty or at least the benefit of the doubt. In the end, whatever Emmanuel Macron may do and say, the sincerity of his approach will be widely questioned. Without much ado.
Among the militants of La République en marche, it seems certain that the President will be a candidate for a second term and that he will have every chance of being elected. Two very rational reasons are invoked. The first is that there will be no credible candidate against him. The second is that it will take ten years to complete the transformation of France.
If Emmanuel Macron’s immediate entourage believes that he has a serious chance of being re-elected in 2022, there are reasons for this. The first is the decomposition of the political offer he created in 2017. The socialist party is in a state of brain death. The Republicains (center Right) shines by incompetence. LFI (commies) are tricked by islamists. Center party Modem leader François Bayrou is now subservient to LREM, while Europe Écologie-Les Verts is struggling to find a unifying guideline beyond a left-wing environmentalist electorate.
Marine le Pen, the losing opposition
Marine Le Pen seems to embody the first opposition to the President of the Republic, claiming rightly or wrongly as the representative of the little people who suffer. And it seems that her speech gradually penetrates these circles, election after election. We also hear that the environmental question will be central in 2022. If environmentalists manage to agree on a presidential election candidate, as Daniel Cohn-Bendit and Guy Verhofstadt did in their time, she may even be ahead in the first part of the 2 turns voting system presidential vote.
But that doesn’t mean she will win in the end. Actually, nobody believes that. French Presidential election have two rounds, and Macron has a much wider centrists support. Even Marine le Pen allies do not believe in her possible victory . Last july, Robert Menard, the mayor of Béziers, with no label but close to the Rassemblement National, said that Marine Le Pen has no chance of winning against Emmanuel Macron in the event of a duel in 2022.
In the eyes of Robert Ménard, Marine Le Pen “will lose because she embodies a protest opposition”: “We must be realistic, today a candidate of the National Rally, labelled National Rally, I guarantee you that he will not be head of state,” he insisted. . “She is the guarantee, the life insurance of Mr Macron. It is the certainty for Mr. Macron that he will be head of state. She will lose. And I don’t want that,” he said
Some people have presented the polemist Eric Zemmour as “another face that can embody this sensitivity”. Eric Moise Zemmour, is Sephardic Jewish polemicist that has some right ideas, such as the expulsion of blacks. However, as he outlined himself, he is not a politician and will not run as president, ever.
The presidential election nobody wants
The duel Marine le Pen-Macron is given. Although 67% of French people expect to see the President of the National Rally and the outgoing President face off again in May 2022, they do not want to, revealed an Ifop poll for Le Figaro on Tuesday 9th February.
A third of those polled (37%) believe that the outgoing president will be re-elected against a quarter (25%) who are betting on the president of the Rassemblement National, who has already announced her candidacy.
Nobody on the right seems to be likely to even beat Marine le Pen or Macron. On the right, the Regional President of the Hauts-de-France (Northern France) Xavier Bertrand stands out, but with only 27% of those polled believing that he would make a good candidate in the second round, three points less than at the end of 2019. The president of the Île-de-France region Valérie Pécresse is far behind him with 17% of the French who believe they would be a good candidate. On the left, 20% of the French think that the mayor of Paris – who transformed her city into a Shithole – Anne Hidalgo would be a good candidate in the second round, ahead of the leader of the communist undemocratic socialists Insoumis leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon (18%), the former minister Arnaud Montebourg (16%) and the ecologist Yannick Jadot (12%).
Basically, nobody seems to attract voters, and Macron is already likely reelected.